Thursday, September 04, 2003
September 3, 2003
GADS...has it really been since July that I blogged anything? Well, is it at all surprising??? The market has pretty much done nothing, nada, niente. Just jive around alot to the benefit of commission getters and slick daytrading hot shots (how quaint the language!).
Well, this is a just a "checking in" post anyway, a rewrite and post of my latest stockcharts.com blab. Here it is:
Price moved over upper channel resistance, yesterday hit the 1023 (on the weekly) and then today 1029.34 (1030 was my daily target). Thanks for the back slaps, she says no one in particular.
The question is, now what? I'm going out on a small limb and say this is close to a signficant top, not TOP perhaps, but at least one worthy of a shiver of fright. I say this largely based on the 'hyper' lime-green fork on RSI getting only the median hit where as price moved nearly to the top of it's equivalent hyper fork. Mind you, the big players have been toying with top callers for MONTHS, so I don't expect much. One other item of interest is that the OEX ratio is again rising, which indicates that my idea of the small caps having played out, if only for a spell may be in work. The roaches, which have been piled in the small caps, are starting to creep back to the safety of the larger big cap roach motel.
I remain skeptical of new-found broader bullishness (blah blah blah-- I'm tired of hearing this from myself!!). Nevertheless, the action has largely been in the small caps, which now show signs of slowing down. See the chart labelled 'OEX out of Favor' and the Small Cap Daily just below.
My bet is that the 'breakout' will be a fakeout and September will be the long awaited correction. Interestingly, in 2001, the market was rife with 'double-bottom' spotting. *This* time it is rife with top-calling, which is well supported with weak internals. We shall see....
A slightly more critical closing value, IMO, is 957, the monthly low close that launched the bull in 1998. Bears have been desperate to be proven right, while bulls have been complacent that 'this time is different'. A tug of war through mud leaving both sides more dirtied than right.
Added monthly study. Negative RSI Reversal potential on monthly. This works slowly, but the divergence is big enough to suggest the breakout may be down, however, it could continue to run, perhaps to 1050 by the looks of the weekly charts.
And here are the charts for Sept:
Daily SPX chartWeekly SPX chartMonthly SPX chartLabels: market-calls-dated
